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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model