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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 21 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 9, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model