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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 13

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Cooper [98-B.Orakpo].

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP