4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.85 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP