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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Gregg Williams
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

ATL
67.1%
CLE
32.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.108 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.221 EPA/dropback
  • CLE offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.161 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 25
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: ATL by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ATL

Matt Bryant K Out right Hamstring
Derrick Shelby DE Questionable Groin

CLE

Desmond Harrison T Questionable Illness
Damarious Randall S Questionable Groin
David Njoku TE Questionable Knee
Joe Schobert LB Questionable Ankle
Da'Mari Scott WR Questionable Shoulder
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 16
–
CLE 28

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:44 TD CLE (4:44) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 81-R.Higgins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 12:22 FG ATL (12:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – CLE 7
  • Q2 05:08 TD ATL (5:08) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – CLE 7
  • Q2 01:01 TD CLE (1:01) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 24-N.Chubb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – CLE 13
  • Q3 10:31 TD CLE (10:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – CLE 20
  • Q3 08:51 TD CLE (8:51) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – CLE 27
  • Q4 04:29 TD ATL (4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – CLE 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:14) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 29%

    (9:38) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to CLE 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 47%

    (:30) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 12-M.Sanu. 25-I.Smith right guard to CLE 37 for 4 yards (54-T.Vallejo).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

    (12:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (9:08) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to CLE 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to CLE 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 20 for 6 yards (36-K.Ishmael).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:33) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (11:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 85-E.Saubert.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:37) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to ATL 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 31 for 5 yards (87-S.DeValve; 22-J.Peppers).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:05) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-54-T.Vallejo.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 70%

    (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at CLE 37 for -5 yards (50-C.Smith). FUMBLES (50-C.Smith) [50-C.Smith], touched at CLE 45, RECOVERED by CLE-51-J.Collins at CLE 49. 51-J.Collins to CLE 49 for no gain (70-J.Matthews).