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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 58

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(6:18) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to CLE 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 20 for 6 yards (36-K.Ishmael).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP