4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 28 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model