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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 1

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(11:33) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 85-E.Saubert.

The Three Options

GO +4.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model