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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 28 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(8:37) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to ATL 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-J.Hardy to ATL 31 for 5 yards (87-S.DeValve; 22-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.24 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP