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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 3, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model