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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 28 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to ATL 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-54-T.Vallejo.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.56 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model