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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 4-S.Hauschka 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model