BUF @ NYJ — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott

Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles

Sunday 2018-11-11 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

BUF

29.2%

NYJ

70.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BUF offense: -0.298 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
NYJ offense: -0.200 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
NYJ defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
BUF defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Matt Barkley (BUF): -0.005 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BUF starting Matt Barkley in place of Nathan Peterman)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 18

–

NYJ 24

Projected margin: NYJ by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

BUF

Derek Anderson QB Out Concussion

Charles Clay TE Out Hamstring

Trent Murphy DE Out Knee

Andre Holmes WR Questionable Neck

Josh Allen QB Questionable right Elbow

Tremaine Edmunds LB Questionable Concussion

Chris Ivory RB Questionable Shoulder

NYJ

Neal Sterling TE Out Concussion

Robby Anderson WR Doubtful Ankle

Sam Darnold QB Doubtful Foot

Spencer Long C Doubtful Knee

Steve McLendon DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 41

–

NYJ 10

Prediction missed by 37 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 14:20 TD BUF (14:20) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYJ 0
Q1 02:25 TD BUF (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right to 11-Z.Jones to NYJ 1 for 10 yards (54-A.Williamson). FUMBLES (54-A.Williamson), recovered by BUF-80-J.Croom at NYJ 0. TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NYJ 0
Q2 13:57 FG BUF (13:57) 4-S.Hauschka 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 17 – NYJ 0
Q2 08:02 TD BUF (8:02) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 5-M.Barkley pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – NYJ 0
Q2 00:45 TD BUF (:45) 74-J.Sirles reported in as eligible. 25-L.McCoy right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – NYJ 0
Q2 00:02 FG NYJ (:02) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. BUF 31 – NYJ 3
Q3 06:37 TD NYJ (6:37) 20-I.Crowell left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 31 – NYJ 9
Q3 00:39 TD BUF (:39) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short middle to 11-Z.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 37 – NYJ 10
Q4 02:47 FG BUF (2:47) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 41 – NYJ 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(12:54) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 29 for 8 yards (23-T.Brooks).
Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(11:42) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to NYJ 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 44 for 15 yards (69-R.Ferguson).
Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(9:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 27 for 17 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 53

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 18%

(7:26) (Punt formation) 82-L.Thomas pass short right to 16-R.Foster to NYJ 38 for 15 yards (17-C.Peake).
Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(1:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie ran ob at BUF 27 for 11 yards.
Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 59%

(13:57) 4-S.Hauschka 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP

p(convert) 56%

(13:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at BUF 36 for 21 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 50

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 24%

(5:05) 25-E.McGuire up the middle to BUF 37 for 13 yards (21-J.Poyer; 47-L.Wallace).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 49

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 26%

(:10) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 25-E.McGuire to BUF 37 for 12 yards (58-M.Milano; 20-R.Bush).
Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(13:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 17 for 2 yards (56-K.Pierre-Louis).
Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(10:15) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to NYJ 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(14:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 30 yards to BUF 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(12:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NYJ 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 18%

(8:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(8:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 26 yards to NYJ 48, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-48-J.Jenkins.
Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 13 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

(2:47) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 62 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(1:55) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass incomplete short middle to 40-T.Cannon.