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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 50

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 25-E.McGuire up the middle to BUF 37 for 13 yards (21-J.Poyer; 47-L.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.93 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model