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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 71

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to BUF 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 29 for 8 yards (23-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model