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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 49

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 25-E.McGuire to BUF 37 for 12 yards (58-M.Milano; 20-R.Bush).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model