Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 31 – New York Jets 3

(10:15) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to NYJ 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model