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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 70

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 38

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 30 yards to BUF 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model