Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 38 – New York Jets 10

(12:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NYJ 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.63 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model