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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to NYJ 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 44 for 15 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.71 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model