4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 38 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model