Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 78

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 38

(8:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 26 yards to NYJ 48, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-48-J.Jenkins.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.36 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model