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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 38 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model