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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 58

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BUF 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 27 for 17 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.24 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model