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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 52 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to CAR 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.49 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP