Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- PIT offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.231 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- PIT defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
CAR
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:36 TD CAR (10:36) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – PIT 0
- Q1 10:29 TD PIT (10:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – PIT 6
- Q1 10:13 TD PIT (10:13) 1-C.Newton pass short middle intended for 17-D.Funchess INTERCEPTED by 98-V.Williams [90-T.Watt] at CAR 17. 98-V.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pressure by 90-Watt. CAR 7 – PIT 13
- Q1 04:39 TD PIT (4:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – PIT 20
- Q2 09:51 FG PIT (9:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CAR 7 – PIT 24
- Q2 05:10 TD CAR (5:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – PIT 24
- Q2 03:16 TD PIT (3:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 84-A.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – PIT 30
- Q3 08:23 TD PIT (8:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-92-V.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 14 – PIT 37
- Q3 00:24 TD PIT (:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 81-J.James for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – PIT 44
- Q4 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 38-J.Samuels for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – PIT 51
- Q4 05:39 TD CAR (5:39) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – PIT 52
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 88%
(11:19) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to PIT 20 for 2 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh, 51-J.Bostic).
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(9:06) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to PIT 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 39 for 10 yards (42-C.Jones).
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 41Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 51%
(14:56) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to PIT 08, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.
-
Q2 PIT 4th & 17 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 73%
(9:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:14) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to PIT 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 19 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(11:09) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to PIT 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:34) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to CAR 42, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-54-L.Fort.
-
Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 64 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 63%
(2:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to CAR 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.