Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(9:06) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to PIT 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 39 for 10 yards (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.86 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model