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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 34

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 26

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model