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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DET
40.0%
CHI
60.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 20
–
CHI 24
Projected margin: CHI by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DET

T.J. Lang G Out Neck
Darius Slay CB Out Knee
Eli Harold LB Doubtful Shoulder
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
Kerryon Johnson RB Questionable Ankle
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Neck
Luke Willson TE Questionable Shoulder

CHI

Dion Sims TE Out Concussion
Bilal Nichols DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 22
–
CHI 34

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:26 TD CHI (11:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 00:45 TD CHI (:45) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson II for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 12
  • Q2 11:33 TD CHI (11:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 19
  • Q2 08:18 TD CHI (8:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 25
  • Q2 01:08 TD DET (1:08) (Shotgun) 33-K.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 26
  • Q3 13:28 FG DET (13:28) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 10 – CHI 26
  • Q3 02:57 TD CHI (2:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 12-A.Robinson II for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – CHI 32
  • Q4 08:36 TD DET (8:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 19-K.Golladay for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – CHI 34
  • Q4 07:28 TD DET (7:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 33-K.Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 22 – CHI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 47%

    (7:28) 33-K.Johnson left end to CHI 30 for 10 yards (20-P.Amukamara).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 55%

    (5:20) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to CHI 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:28) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 63%

    (13:28) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%

    (11:13) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (8:48) 1-C.Parkey 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 20 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:46) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 39 for 18 yards (51-K.Sheppard).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

    (4:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to DET 8, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-85-D.Brown.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:55) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to 50, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-53-T.Bates.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to DET 40 for 5 yards (39-E.Jackson).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-M.Roberts to CHI 42 for 9 yards (58-R.Smith). DET-80-M.Roberts was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DET-33-K.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 29%

    (12:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 13-T.Jones INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Amukamara at CHI 3. 20-P.Amukamara to CHI 3 for no gain (13-T.Jones).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 49, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-T.Jones to CHI 39 for 12 yards (47-I.Irving). PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 40.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 52%

    (8:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay to CHI 13 for 25 yards (20-P.Amukamara).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.