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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 43

Chicago Bears 26 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to DET 8, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-85-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model