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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 87

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 26

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to 50, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-53-T.Bates.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 87, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model