Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 99

Chicago Bears 34 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 49, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-T.Jones to CHI 39 for 12 yards (47-I.Irving). PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 40.

The Three Options

GO -3.67 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.63 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 99, worth -6.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model