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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 40

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 33-K.Johnson left end to CHI 30 for 10 yards (20-P.Amukamara).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.19 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model