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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP