4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 12

New England Patriots 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:59) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White pushed ob at TEN 1 for 11 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.08 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model