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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NE
59.1%
TEN
40.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.192 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
TEN 20
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NE

Matt Slater WR Questionable Illness
Trenton Brown T Questionable Illness
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Ankle
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Jacob Hollister TE Questionable Hamstring
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Calf
Sony Michel RB Questionable Knee

TEN

Jack Conklin T Out Concussion
Dane Cruikshank S Questionable Knee
Derrick Morgan LB Questionable Shoulder
Taywan Taylor WR Questionable Foot
Bennie Logan DT Questionable Knee
Tajae Sharpe WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 10
–
TEN 34

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:36 TD TEN (11:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 09:24 FG NE (9:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – TEN 7
  • Q1 06:05 TD TEN (6:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 84-C.Davis for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-24-S.Gilmore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. NE 3 – TEN 13
  • Q1 02:39 FG TEN (2:39) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. NE 3 – TEN 17
  • Q2 12:54 TD NE (12:54) 46-J.Develin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – TEN 17
  • Q2 01:12 TD TEN (1:12) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – TEN 23
  • Q3 04:19 FG TEN (4:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. NE 10 – TEN 27
  • Q4 07:17 TD TEN (7:17) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – TEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 68%

    (9:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 19 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:25) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to TEN 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 49 for 13 yards (46-J.Develin, 43-N.Ebner). FUMBLES (46-J.Develin), and recovers at NE 49. 25-A.Jackson to NE 49 for no gain (46-J.Develin).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (2:39) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%

    (13:59) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White pushed ob at TEN 1 for 11 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (11:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to NE 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 30 for 18 yards (41-B.Trawick).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 68%

    (9:28) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 40%

    (6:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NE 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:39) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to TEN 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 45, and recovers at TEN 46. 25-A.Jackson to NE 42 for 12 yards (46-J.Develin; 53-K.Van Noy). PENALTY on NE-15-C.Hogan, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NE 42.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:30) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to TEN 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 32 for 15 yards (36-B.King).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:58) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to NE 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 51%

    (9:15) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to TEN 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (4:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:11) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NE 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Edelman to NE 25 for 12 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 48%

    (10:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Edelman (26-L.Ryan).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:04) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 66 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to NE 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-15-D.Jennings.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:55) 2-B.Hoyer up the middle to NE 45 for 2 yards (97-D.Kilgo).