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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 34

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP