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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 69

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to TEN 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 32 for 15 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model