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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 41

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to TEN 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP