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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 13

Tennessee Titans 24 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 13, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model