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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 57

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(2:11) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP