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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 42

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(10:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Edelman (26-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model