Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 76

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 34

(5:04) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 66 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.17 EP
52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model