Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 34 – New England Patriots 10

(2:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to NE 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-15-D.Jennings.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.69 EP
51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model