Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 85

New England Patriots 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(4:25) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to TEN 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 49 for 13 yards (46-J.Develin, 43-N.Ebner). FUMBLES (46-J.Develin), and recovers at NE 49. 25-A.Jackson to NE 49 for no gain (46-J.Develin).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.58 EP
72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model