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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to NO 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.48 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP