Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- Drew Brees (NO): +0.319 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CIN offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- CIN defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- CIN on 7 more days rest than NO
- NO defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
NO
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:34 TD NO (6:34) {NO#9 at QB} 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – CIN 0
- Q1 02:00 TD CIN (2:00) 74-J.Fisher reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 15-J.Ross for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – CIN 6
- Q2 13:43 TD NO (13:43) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – CIN 7
- Q2 05:36 TD NO (5:36) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – CIN 7
- Q2 01:27 TD NO (1:27) {NO #9 a QB} 41-A.Kamara left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – CIN 7
- Q2 00:08 TD NO (:08) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-C.Dunlap]. NO 34 – CIN 7
- Q3 09:08 FG NO (9:08) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 38 – CIN 7
- Q3 02:27 TD NO (2:27) 63-C.Tom reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 44 – CIN 7
- Q4 11:25 FG NO (11:25) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 48 – CIN 7
- Q4 07:22 FG NO (7:22) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 51 – CIN 7
- Q4 04:48 TD CIN (4:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 51 – CIN 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 39%
(10:33) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to NO 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:15) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to NO 38, Center-46-C.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 40 for 2 yards (50-J.Evans).
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Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:20) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to NO 28, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.
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Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 96%
(9:08) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 57%
(6:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 15-J.Ross.
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Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(2:27) 63-C.Tom reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(1:40) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to NO 41, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 80-A.Carr.
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Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%
(11:25) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%
(7:22) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 27 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 81%
(4:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.