Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New Orleans Saints 21

(4:15) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to NO 38, Center-46-C.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 40 for 2 yards (50-J.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model