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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 13 at the 38
Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New Orleans Saints 38
What Actually Happened
(6:26) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 15-J.Ross.
The Three Options
GO
+0.03 EP
What Happened
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.44 EP
- 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.83 EP
KICK
+0.16 EP
Model's Pick
- 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
- 43% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
