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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 38 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 63-C.Tom reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model